北京市地热资源开发的时空变化

简要介绍了北京地热资源特点,分析了北京地热资源开发的时空演变规律.在搜集资料和实地调查的基础上,绘制出了北京城区地热井分布示意图,并针对其开发利用中可能出现的问题提出了对策.     

黄、渤海滨海带大气颗粒物时空分布与来源特征

PM10作为大气污染物监测的主要指标之一,探究大气PM10浓度对大气环境质量和人体健康评价具有重要意义。黄、渤海滨海带包括京、津和辽、冀、鲁、苏等工、农业大省,区域大气PM10污染的时空分布和来源特征具有复杂性和典型性。在锦州、北京、天津、烟台、青岛、连云港和盐城7个城市布设10个采样点,含7个城市点和3个农村点,开展为期一年的大气颗粒物的采样;同时,于冬季1月和夏季7月在锦州、天津和烟台进行合计60 d的加密采样,藉以确定研究区域大气PM10的时空分布和来源特征。结果表明,黄、渤海滨海带大气年均PM10总浓度为(129’18)"g·m~(-3),单月最低值出现在2015年7月盐城农村样点15"g·m~(-3),最高值为2015年3月北京城市点307"g·m~(-3)。盐城大气PM10浓度(城市点(85’27)"g·m~(-3)和农村点(66’35)"g·m~(-3))显著低于其他样点大气PM10浓度。渤海滨海带中西部的京(140’68"g·m~(-3))、津(169’60"g·m~(-3))两市大气PM10年均浓度显著高于东部的锦州(125’41"g·m~(-3))和烟台(109’31"g·m~(-3));而且黄海滨海带大气PM10年均浓度(114"g·m~(-3))显著低于渤海滨海带年均浓度(136"g·m~(-3)),总体上表现出西高东低、北高南低的特征。黄、渤海滨海带城市点和农村点年均浓度分别为(129’18)"g·m~(-3)和(112’30)"g·m~(-3);农村点春冬季大气PM10浓度和城市点浓度相当,无显著差异,夏秋季大气PM10浓度略低于城市浓度,表明农村地区大气颗粒物污染情况也较为严重,需受到关注。区域内PM10浓度季节变化整体表现为春冬高、夏秋低。利用多元回归分析初步判断黄、渤海滨海带PM10属于复合来源,大气PM10浓度约30%的变化与降水、人均能耗和沙尘天气相关。黄、渤海滨海带大气PM10浓度的昼夜变化不大,大气PM10浓度与气温呈现正相关,与风速和降水呈现负相关,表现为受各种气象因素综合作用的影响。     

武汉地区水环境中全氟化合物污染水平及其分布特征

武汉作为中国氟化工行业的主要生产基地之一,其水环境中全氟及多氟类化合物(PFASs)污染情况对评估该地区水环境生态安全至关重要。采集了武汉城区10个污水处理厂进、出口污水和19个地表水样品,利用HPLC-ESI-MS/MS技术分析研究该区域水环境中PFASs污染水平及其分布特征。结果发现,武汉地区的污水和地表水样品中,PFASs污染均以短链同系物全氟丁酸(PFBA)和全氟丁基磺酸(PFBS)为主。污水处理厂进、出口污水中PFASs总浓度分别为11.8~12 700 ng·L~(-1)和19.1~9 970 ng·L~(-1)。在城区15个湖水样品中,PFASs总浓度为21.0~10 900 ng·L~(-1);在流经城区的4个江水样品中,PFASs总浓度为4.11~4.77 ng·L~(-1),比湖水样品中PFASs浓度水平低1~2个数量级。与污水中PFASs空间分布趋势一致,各湖泊水样中PFASs总体水平呈现汉口汉阳武昌的趋势,表明城市工业布局与人口密度程度直接影响城市PFASs污染空间分布。值得注意的是,与以往水环境中PFASs污染以全氟辛酸(PFOA)和全氟辛基磺酸(PFOS)为主不同,武汉地区水环境中PFASs污染以短链同系物为主,表明短链替代效应已经渐渐在中国化工领域出现,中国全氟行业在响应国际组织规范和建议的基础上做出了实质性进展。然而,对于短链PFASs的污染特征、迁移运输以及生态风险等科学问题,还需要更进一步的研究。     

围垦后南汇东滩海三棱藨草的空间分布及其影响因子研究

2015年9月~10月期间对2012年底围垦后南汇嘴区域的海三棱藨草(Scirpus mariqueter)湿地系统进行了调研,运用主成分分析、典范对应分析(canonical correspondence analysis,CCA)方法,基于101个样地土壤的有机碳、总磷、总氮、硝酸盐氮、亚硝酸盐氮、氨氮、正磷酸盐、pH、含水率、粒径、盐度、滩涂高程等12个环境因子数据,探讨了围垦后海三棱藨草空间分布的关键影响因子。结果表明:海三棱藨草的分布与滩涂高程具有显著正相关(P0.05),海三棱藨草群落主要分布在南汇滩涂2.5~3.4 m高程范围内;海三棱藨草的密度、盖度与盐度呈显著正相关(P0.05)。结论认为滩涂高程和土壤盐度是影响海三棱藨草分布的主要环境因子。未来需要结合围垦后的水动力变化过程数值模拟,对海三棱藨草生态系统高时空分辨率的响应过程及机制进行研究,以进一步确立海三棱藨草对围垦工程响应的关键阈值。研究对围垦工程后的滨海湿地植被恢复及滩涂生态修复具有参考意义。     

Trait‐based prediction of extinction risk of small‐bodied freshwater fishes

Small body size is generally correlated with r‐selected life‐history traits, including early maturation, short‐generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small‐bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray‐Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi‐Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty‐three ecological and life‐history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size—among small‐bodied species—was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k‐folds cross‐validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small‐bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.     

Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

长湖流域水质时空分布特征及影响因子

利用2009—2014年长湖5个水质监测点数据,采用时间序列法分析了长湖水质的时间变化规律,采用相关性分析法,分析了流域水污染的影响因子。结果表明:在时间上,长湖水污染物质量浓度季节变化明显,COD、TN、NH3-N均为7、9月较低,1、3月较高,丰水期水质好于枯水期。入湖地区TP质量浓度7月达最高值,且7月份入湖地区的桥河口、关沮口的NH3-N、TN含量稍高于5月。空间上,西北部入湖地区水质劣于湖心及东南部出湖地区。工业、生活等点源污水,以耕地为主的农业非点源以及天然降水量和径流量是影响水质的主要因素,入湖排污量、降水量和径流量与长湖水质呈显著相关关系(P0.05)。     

Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River

Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark‐recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12‐year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model‐averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5–15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6–8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0–9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil‐recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure.     

我国高速公路周边土壤重金属污染现状及研究进展

以我国高速公路周边土壤重金属为研究对象，综述了我国高速公路周边土壤重金属污染特征、影响因素、来源、环境风险及其研究进展。高速公路周边土壤主要受Pb、Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn等重金属污染，主要呈现指数分布、偏态分布和两者混合分布等特点，并且受到土地利用、风向、地形、车流量等多种因素的综合影响。土壤重金属的来源除了受成土母质等自然因素影响以外，公路交通和周边工农业活动也会对其来源产生较大影响。传统的土壤重金属评价方法主要采用单因子指数法、地累积指数法、生态风险评价法等对重金属的污染等级和环境风险进行评价。未来的研究应将重金属形态分析、空间和地统计分析、重金属稳定同位素示踪和源解析模型以及预测模型等多种手段相结合，开展高速公路周边土壤重金属的污染特征、时空分布、来源及预测预警研究等，为我国高速公路沿线工农业生产布局及其土壤重金属污染防控提供科学依据和决策支撑。     

土壤污染物的生态毒理效应和风险评估研究进展

环境生态风险评估（ERA）流程已经被纳入全球环境政策中，既用于规范新化学物质的授权和营销（前瞻性环境生态风险评估），也用于评估潜在的污染场地（回顾性环境生态风险评估）。将土壤生态毒理学应用于风险评估，能阐明有毒物质对土壤生态系统中生命有机体的危害程度与范围。笔者主要介绍了应用评估因子法和物种敏感度分布法对基于效应数据进行的外推与估算，并综述了欧美等主要国家和地区的土壤生态风险评估框架、相关法律法规及其实施情况等，为中国开展土壤污染物生态毒理效应和风险评估等相关研究提供参考。